What the SpaceX IPO Taught Investors
Two massive AI companies are issuing IPOs later this year. What does the SpaceX offering and the subsequent volatility tell us about what might happen next?
Why the SpaceX IPO Caught Investors’ Attention
The IPO of SpaceX earlier this month was one of the most anticipated public offerings in recent memory. Driven by excitement around space technology, satellite communications, artificial intelligence, and the vision of Elon Musk, some investors rushed to gain exposure to one of the world’s most closely watched private companies. The result was exactly what many market observers expected: intense demand, limited share availability, sharp price movements, and significant volatility.
For investors, the more important story may not be SpaceX itself. Instead, it may be what the SpaceX experience teaches us about the highly anticipated IPOs expected later this year from AI giants Anthropic and OpenAI.
Cameron Scrivens on SpaceX Valuation and Risk
During a recent appearance on BNN Bloomberg, JCIC President and Portfolio Manager Cameron Scrivens noted that while parts of the SpaceX story are compelling, investors should remain disciplined.
“We’re in the camp of ‘it’s a bit of a hope and pray,’” Scrivens told viewers. “You’ve got three businesses. One is fantastic with Starlink. They are providing WiFi services from space and it’s a real business. The rocket division, as well as putting up data centers in space, are still TBD.”
Scrivens pointed out that while Starlink has demonstrated a viable commercial model, other parts of the company still face substantial execution and technological risks.
“Until we have better comfort that they are going to be successful, there’s still a lot of technological challenges with both those divisions. We think that we’re going to steer clear of it for now and wait for all the noise to settle down.”
What the SpaceX IPO Could Signal for OpenAI and Anthropic
That same mindset may prove valuable when investors evaluate Anthropic and OpenAI. Both companies have become household names thanks to the rapid adoption of generative AI. Their products are transforming how businesses operate and how consumers interact with technology. Yet enthusiasm alone does not guarantee attractive investment returns. Scrivens predicts that investor demand could mirror what occurred with SpaceX.
“I think we’ll see a similar trading pattern. You’re going to have a lot of people who are pretty excited about Anthropic and OpenAI and the early believers will want to jump in on those stocks as well as a lot of retail investors.”
Why Limited IPO Share Supply Can Fuel Volatility
The limited supply of shares available during a high-profile IPO can amplify volatility. In the case of SpaceX, Scrivens noted that “it was a very tight IPO,” which contributed to aggressive bidding by investors who were unable to obtain allocations.
The Key Lesson from the SpaceX IPO is Patience
For long-term investors, however, patience remains an important tool.
As Scrivens concluded, “I think there’s going to be a lot of volatility in the name and we don’t need to be heroes and jump in at this point in time.”
That may be the most important lesson from the SpaceX IPO.
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